By SHERWIN DE VERA
www.nordis.net

BAGUIO CITY —Just two days after the provincial government placed Cagayan under a state of calamity, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) announced that the province is experiencing a “dry spell” after recording below-normal rainfall for three consecutive months.

Engineer Remedios Ciervo, PAGASA senior weather specialist, said during the agency’s 195th Climate Forum on April 22, that the province has met the criteria for a dry spell, defined as three straight months of below-normal rainfall. She explained that two consecutive months of reduced rainfall indicate a “dry condition,” while five months would qualify as a “drought.”

On Monday, the province declared a state of calamity in response to the combined effects of prolonged drought and rising fuel costs, which, according to the Provincial Agriculture Office, could result in losses estimated at P10.29 billion.

PAGASA Administrator Dr. Nathaniel Servando confirmed that the probability of El Niño developing has risen to 79 percent, prompting the agency to upgrade its status from El Niño Watch to El Niño Alert.

The weather phenomenon is expected to begin as early as June and may persist until the first quarter of 2027, and could bring hotter, drier conditions that may lead to drought in parts of the country.

PAGASA advised the public to monitor El Niño advisories, as the threat of a “Very Strong El Niño” remains. The agency also advised the public, particularly those in agriculture and water management, to implement early measures to mitigate potential impacts.

Engr. Arsenio Antonio of the Office of the Provincial Agriculture reported corn damage of about P1.4 billion and rice losses of over P4.0 billion due to drought. Losses among fisherfolk, driven by rising fuel prices, were estimated at P4.8 billion. 

He said fishing costs have sharply increased, reducing earnings, noting that 30 liters of fuel previously cost about P1,800, allowing fishers to earn around P2,200 from a 20-kilo catch. With higher fuel prices, income has dropped to about P200.

Following the declaration, the provincial government began preparing assistance for affected residents, and coordination is ongoing to finalize beneficiary lists.  The declaration allows the province to use its calamity fund for relief assistance and emergency cash aid.# nordis.net