Home > Op-ed | To bottom

Predictions and reality

The year opened with numerous predictions including the ouster of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (GMA). For most Filipinos, these predictions especially the one involving GMA are source for comic, if not relief. But looking at the present political and economic situation, the predictions have a valid basis as the political situation becomes more unstable and the populace remains impoverished in spite of the economic growth that GMA has been bragging about.

Two major political developments will prove crucial for GMA to remain in power until 2007. First is the rift in the military as seen in the case of Navy Captain Nicanor Faeldon who continues to elude capture. And secondly, the rift in the ruling party as GMA’s staunchest allies start to have their dissenting opinions and have been very vocal in pointing these out like former president Fidel V. Ramos (FVR).

Faeldon, one of the six officers in the Magdalo group who staged the Oakwood mutiny who escaped prison last December, has been roaming around the country allegedly to recruit soldiers to his cause and to promote civil disobedience and push GMA whose mandate is highly questionable to step down. His first act of civil disobedience is entering military camps and since his escape, he claims to have entered at least 2 camps the Western Command headquarters in Palawan and the Southern Command in Zamboanga. Furthermore, he explains that there are no military personnel who are “coddling” him but rather there are military men “who are committing civil disobedience together with me”.

Certainly, Faeldon cannot act on his own. Escaping from a military prison is highly improbable for a single individual to plan and successfully undertake. Entering military camps, taking one’s photo is also unlikely for a high profile fugitive like Faeldon to undertake on his own. For Faeldon to do these, he must have support from the military.

Second point, FVR continues to go public with his dissenting opinions regarding the policies and programs of GMA and the most recent of which is the claim of a secretary cabinet secretary that FVR is supporting GMA until 2010. Though FVR categorically said that he has declined the invitation from the opposition, his dissenting opinions will show the state of affairs in the ruling party and the dwindling support of GMA particularly FVR’s conditional support. As FVR have reiterated, he is for “the national interest and not for any individual.”

Furthermore, plans to legitimize repression by amending the 1987 Constitution have slowly cropped out and will certainly help in the growth of anti-GMA forces.

Noteworthy is the proposal of the Constitutional Commission to insert the word responsible in Section 4 of the Bill of Rights, thus it would read: “No law shall be passed abridging the responsible exercise of the freedom of speech, of expression, or of the press, or the right of the people peaceably to assemble and petition the Government for redress of grievances.” This insertion is clearly an opening for repression. Any attack on the government in the media, through rallies, etc. can easily be described as irresponsible and be subject to arrest.

Lastly, GMA’s ouster can be a reality as the government continues to fail in uplifting the living conditions of the populace and the people are tired of unfulfilled promises. Even though the gross national product (GNP) has increased in 2005, majority of the population is living in extreme poverty as shown in the survey of the Social Weather Survey. This means that the increase in the GNP has not benefited middle to lower income families but rather proved to widen the gap between the rich and poor.

Furthermore, rising costs brought about by oil price hikes, inflation and the decreasing income of most Filipinos remain a threat to the existence of millions of Filipino families. Belt-tightening has its threshold and when it reaches this threshold, Filipinos will certainly look for an alternative and may result to ending the reign of GMA.

Prediction or reality... it is up for the people to decide. #

Post your comments, reactions to this article

Home > Op-ed | Back to top